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Author: Marguerite Arnold

The Top 10 Cannabis Economies In Europe

Things are starting to change in a hurry on the cannabis front across the EU. Here is a brief overview of the leading cannabis countries across the region as it experiences a European “summer of cannabis love”

Things are definitely moving in Europe on the cannabis front this summer. Countries are beginning to see a post-Covid wave of enthusiasm if not continual reminders from the industry as it exists so far, to finally address lingering cannabis prohibition of both the medical and recreational kind.

Just as in the United States, where conservative states (like North Carolina) cannot deny at least medical efficacy anymore, there is a certain logic that is driving reform across Europe right now.

There has already been a raft of interesting announcements this spring – starting of course with Germany. But things are not just moving aus Deutschland.

Read on for a brief overview of the top ten cannabis countries in Europe

Germany

If there was a tipping point, it would be Germany’s to claim. The largest economy in Europe is going recreational – at least legislatively – this year. This is going to be a very interesting waterfall moment. Come 2024, at the latest, the cannabis map of Europe is going to look very different. Germany currently has three cultivators of EU GMP cannabis, scores of hemp farmers, multiple narcotics distributors, and a growing ecosystem of a country just pre-reform. Think a much higher regulated Colorado circa 2012 but with a very different sprache. It will also be in a position to rival London for fundraising – and not in Berlin but in Frankfurt. When Deutschland goes green, expect a tidal wave of reform to follow across Europe.

Holland

The land that created the eponymous symbol of reform – the coffee shop, is certainly in the heavy hitter column, no matter how many threats keep popping up to shut out tourists in Amsterdam. In the meantime, a national cultivation system that supplies such establishments outside of major cities is setting up to finally get going next year. And do not count out the country when it comes to medical cultivation – even if it is just for export.

Portugal

It looks like recreational reform is back on the national agenda after the Left Bloc raised the topic recently. The country whose world-famous laissez-faire approach to decriminalization (and copied by Oregon) is shaping up to be a major feeder market for the European medical biz. In the meantime, the calls for full reform, which were stymied last year with the fall of the old government, are clearly back on the table this summer.

Greece

Unlike their Dutch neighbours to the north, the Greeks are opening up the country to the cannabis industry because of foreign investment. It is also clear that medical tourism is going to be high on the agenda as things continue to cook. In the meantime, the country is beginning to export medical cannabis, but it is still not living up to its full potential. Give it a few summers, however, and the ability to travel, as a patient, to a warm, inviting climate where a new doctor will issue a prescription, will be understandably enticing – and to a global clientele.

Switzerland

The trial is on! Cities are continuing to announce their cannabis plans. Switzerland may be proceeding slowly and cautiously, with few participants, but right now they are the leader in rolling out a regulated industry of the recreational kind – and from scratch. Cultivation is also happening here, although it will not necessarily be the most economical export. Swiss farmers are competing against those in warmer climates – and with lower labour rates.

Italy

The country’s highest court may have blocked a referendum on reform this year, but medical cannabis cultivation is expanding, as is the hemp market. Beyond this, Italy is on the list of one of the top countries in the region to allow home grow by legislative muster. Despite being more conservative in many ways than Spain, the Italians are managing to beat them to the punch on the cannabis conversation. It may be happening in stranger ways, but right now, there is definitely a regulated industry that is popping and getting stronger.

Spain

Home of the cannabis club, Spain is teetering right now on the verge of medical reform at a federal level. It is an advancement, but there is so much more bubbling just beneath the surface. The clubs are not going to go away. The hemp industry is established. The country has pharmaceutical-grade cannabis being shipped to other European countries. It is certainly ahead of other countries, but there is a great deal of resistance to full and final reform. Don’t expect Spain to be a market leader, but rather a follower.

UK

If certain members of Parliament get their way, the UK’s CBD biz could go into overtime. The reason? The proposed elimination of Novel Food applications. In the meantime, there are close to 6,000 products on, or close to, the market. Medical cannabis cultivation and extraction projects are also underway, especially on the islands surrounding the mainland. Beyond this, the mayor of London, the country’s largest city, is loudly and internationally suggesting that, at minimum, cannabis be decriminalized in certain boroughs of London and that the police might stop racially profiling minor drug offenders. The British investment market, however, is one of the hottest in the world right now. If you are looking for financing anywhere in Europe, you cannot ignore London right now.

Luxembourg

The country’s government has been dangling recreational cannabis reform like a carrot for the last four years. With time running out on fulfilling their pledge, the country is apparently moving forward with a surprisingly conservative home grow proposal at a federal level. When Germany passes reform legislation, expect Luxembourg to be close behind. This was the pattern on the medical front too. It is a rich, but small country. Major policy changes like this are best done by larger countries in the bloc.

The Czech Republic

The CR has taken forward steps on this entire conversation consistently over the last five to seven years. Right now, medical reform is in full swing. Even more interestingly, much like Thailand, the country is more concerned with treating patients than enforcing EU GMP standards. This means that when Germany goes recreational, expect the Czechs to follow shortly thereafter.

Are More Potent Cannabis Strains On The Way?

Israeli researchers are able to increase the levels of all kinds of cannabinoids by introducing a plant-based virus to the grow cycle

The boogie man of the modern legalization movement is the oft-repeated statement that what is available today is “not your grandparents’ weed.” Namely that modern strains are “more potent” than strains available in the 1960s and 1970s.

While this is certainly a hard claim to verify anecdotally since the modern cannabis industry has a much wider variety of cultivars as well as strain “strength,” genetically modified and engineered new strains were always going to be part of the mix.

However, there has been an interesting development in Israel, home of the world’s most cutting-edge research on cannabis. Researchers have now been able to successfully engineer and cultivate a plant with up to 17% higher THC and 25% higher CBG levels, plus 30% more terpenes.

Further, for the first time, it appears possible to tailor individual strains plus the ratio between them. The method that the researchers used influences the production of active substances in the growing plant. They developed an innovative technology that allows a specially engineered virus to “infect” the plant to create the chemical reactions that produced custom levels of desired cannabinoids in their research crops.

The medical impact alone is significant. Not to mention a much more efficient use of space – which is even more significant when cultivating inside. However, this is research that won’t stay inside either a lab or even corporate cultivation for long. Home growers will be able to use this technology too.

Custom cultivated cannabis seems just around the corner.

Out of the Lab and Influencing the Industry?

One of the other really interesting aspects of this development is its potential impact on “whole-plant” medicine. In the world of pharma, individual compounds (like THC or CBD isolates) have been a major focus of the formal pharma part of the industry – and for several reasons.

The first is the stability of strains themselves. Growing cannabis with consistent levels of any cannabinoid is not easy to do on a corporate scale (as many commercial growers, even with pharmaceutical plant experience have discovered). Using this innovative technology would certainly help increase the stability of crops, no matter what kind of seeds were used.

Beyond this, the impact of highly personalized medicine, created not by a large company but by start-ups and even individuals, is the cusp of a revolution most in the industry hoped they would see sooner rather than later.

The other side of this kind of technological development is that in some ways it is a direct threat to biodiversity – which is also a huge industry issue.

The future most certainly, is “here.”

British Columbia Decriminalizes Drugs – Is This A New Global Trend?

A federal exemption has allowed this Canadian province to decriminalize not only small amounts of MDMA (ecstasy) but opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine.

History will certainly regard Canada not to mention this period of time as a forerunner in the new wave of drug legalization. First, there was cannabis. Then the discussion about other psychedelics like psilocybin began to bloom (and in multiple places). Now, British Columbia has announced that all “hard” drugs will be decriminalized in the province.

This is not a federal, but state decision. There won’t be any formal infrastructure set up. One cannot obtain any of these drugs via legal brick and mortars set up by the government to dispense the same. However, people will no longer be arrested for possessing under 2.5 grams of any of these substances.

The Federal Minister of Mental Health and Addictions, Carolyn Bennett, said that the move by the province was in line with a federal priority to curtail opioid deaths. BC had 2,224 drug overdose deaths last year. Those statistics have also gone in absolutely the wrong direction since 2016. 10,000 people have died since 2016.

This new “exemption” begins at the end of January next year and runs until January 2026, unless extended further – or – depending on results – canceled.

Loopholes and Semantics?

It is not like other countries have not tried this approach before. See Portugal and Holland – for starters. Both of these countries have had mixed results.

In Portugal, all drugs were legalized after the repressive regime of Franco ended. That said, Portuguese law has also rolled back some of these “freedoms” based on their impact on public health. Today, the country has one of the most exciting cannabis cultivation markets in Europe.

In Holland, the famous laissez-faire attitude toward soft drug use created the first modern cannabis industry in the world that was at least widely tolerated if not always enthusiastically so. This is still true today, no matter how much there also seems to be a trend to reinvent the cannabis industry domestically.

However, there is another discussion now floating about the room – starting in Mexico but also showing up in places like London if not Austria of late. Namely that this kind of petty interdiction is expensive, not to mention tends to unfairly impact certain demographics. Plus of course, has constitutional implications.

At a time when the expenses incurred by governments in the name of public health have exploded, and Pandemic-related measures have infringed on personal liberties more than they have since the last global pandemic a century ago, it may be that simple issues like decrim are par for the course in a new post Pandemic era.

World’s First Airport Cannabis Dispensary Reportedly Opening Summer 2022

Prince George Airport will reportedly allow a dispensary on its premises as of this summer

Traveling, generally, with cannabis, is still risky, if not an angst-producing experience – even for those with doctor’s notes. Everyone else risks, at minimum, an unpleasant encounter in transit that can easily end badly.

When it comes to air travel – and of all kinds – this caveat is even more true and for a specific reason. Airspace is either “sovereign” or “international” territory. This means that unless there is domestic federal reform, those who transport personal stores are still breaking federal law. This is one of the reasons that flying with products in the United States remains a hazardous proposition.

Per international law, of course, cannabis remains a Schedule I drug. While this is changing, very slowly – and on an individual, case-by-case basis for patients (with plenty of administrative prep work required before one travel), so far for recreational users, this is uncharted territory.

The Canadian Exception

This situation is a bit different in Canada. National law allows travelers to have up to 30 grams of flower for domestic flights and airports have now begun to establish smoking areas – just like they did for tobacco smokers.

However, until now, it was not possible for passengers in transit to buy their supply airports.

This phase too is now ending. As of this summer. Canadians flying out of or landing in Prince George Airport will be able to either get high to fly – or take off right after they land. The only exceptions (apart from the obvious age limits) are that the dispensary will not be allowed to sell to international travelers – or employees of the airport. The store, called fetchingly if not appropriately Copilot, will check boarding passes before they sell – much like duty-free shops already do.

The new idea is not without its controversies. Two of Canada’s largest airlines, Air Canada and WestJet have raised concerns about those on international layover flights and the issue of intoxicated passengers more generally.

That said, this is a bit of a canard. International passengers of Canadian origin would still be able to bring their own and consume it before the flight. The danger from intoxicated passengers is no different than with alcohol.

There is no firm date set for the opening, but according to the website for the dispensary, it will be sometime this summer.

Flying high is about to take on a whole other semantic meaning.

Could Boris Johnson’s No Confidence Vote Speed Up British Cannabis Reform?

The British Prime Minister faces an internal revolt over ‘Partygate’ – but if he loses, will this move cannabis reform faster in the UK?

The UK is a bit of a hot mess right now. While the Queen seems to float above the fray and Britons seem to be happily celebrating her 70 years on the throne in delightfully nostalgic ways, blowback from Covid and Brexit is the name of the game right now across the UK.

This is certainly true for the current resident of 10 Downing Street right now. Boris Johnson is facing a vote of no confidence from the rest of the Tory party. This is predominantly because of the scandal caused by a lack of compliance with the government’s own Covid rules. However, beyond this, the UK is now suffering from not only post-Covid supply chain problems and inflation but the lingering effects of Brexit.

If Johnson does win, he will not face another such challenge for a year. What happens to pending policies – like cannabis reform for the UK?

Cannabis Reform is not Party Driven

No matter the outcome of Johnson’s fate which will be decided on Monday evening (British time), it is unlikely to impact cannabis reform, one way or another, at least directly. There are several reasons. This starts, tragically with the fact that the Labor Party can be just as anti-cannabis as their colleagues across the aisle.

Indeed, it is very clear that the unsettled political environment of the UK right now is one of the largest detriments to having a debate on legalization. The only politician who has been consistently and vocally at least pro decriminalization is the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. It is in his campaign for the same that one can hear the same kinds of reasons for legalization as in the United States. Namely, that stop and search activities by the police are predominantly targeted at minority youth.

Could German Legalization Influence the Brits?

It is very possible that German legalization later this year, along with several other EU countries (plus Switzerland) implementing some form of recreational reform will galvanize the debate here again. However, don’t expect miracles, much less fast ones. The UK does not even have a functioning medical cannabis access program backed by the NHS.

So, while the islands surrounding the UK are certainly hotbeds of reform, don’t look for any real change of policy on the mainland in the near future.

It is also crystal if not tragically clear that onshoring the debate is going to take more than the fall of a prime minister – and for reasons that everything to do with justice of all kinds – from economic to the political variety.

Both seem to be in noticeably short supply.

Japan’s Ministry Of Health Considers Legalization Of Medical Cannabis

The country is considering medical reform and will create a new legal framework to recriminalize adult use

The Ministry of Health in Japan has decided to embark on a path that would seem to indicate that at least medical use of some kinds of cannabis is on track to be authorized soon.

The bad news? The government also apparently intends to become alone in the world to make medical use legal while also planning to specifically penalize recreational users.

As of last week, the Ministry began formal discussions on how to revise the country’s Narcotics Control Act, enacted just after WWII, in 1948. Last year, internal discussions began to lead ministers in the government in the direction of reform after a report discussed the medical efficacy of the drug on diseases like epilepsy. The Ministry of Health intends to draw up proposals before the end of this summer.

All G-7 countries, with the exception of Japan, have approved the use of CBD-based drugs to treat epilepsy.

Going Sideways?

That said, it is not clear how fast the country will move on cannabis reform more generally. The governmental inquiry is also discussing a new provision to the Control Act that specifically criminalizes recreational use while providing a medical exception to patients. There are also expected to be harsh penalties for the consumption of recreational cannabis.

This is a country with a long and tortured cannabis history. In 1980, former Beatles member, Paul McCartney visited the country with about 8 ounces in his possession. He was subsequently banned from the country for 11 years.

The government also made international headlines in 2018, clearly targeting Japanese nationals living in North America when it forbade its ex-pat citizens to use cannabis even if living in a country where its use was legal.

More recently, this February, a U.S. Marine received two years of hard labour for importing a half-gallon of cannabis-infused liquid and a quarter pound of cannabis flower. On May 17, a Japanese school nurse was also imprisoned for suspected possession of an unspecified amount of dried cannabis flower.

As of last year, there were 5,400 people charged with illegal possession – a new record for the country. Offenders below thirty accounted for 70% of those arrested. The number of people arrested for possession has doubled since 2017.

While it is unlikely that this strange compromise will hold, Japan, as a result, has certainly entered the global cannabis conversation with a unique “reform” proposal – even if it is, obviously, an unsustainable one long term.

The Top 20 Cannabis Firms In Germany In 2022

This list of firms currently operating in the regulated cannabis ecosystem and space in Germany are the top companies in the vertical

Make no mistake – the German cannabis industry is going to morph dramatically over the next 24 months. Recreational legalization changes everything!

However, there is likely to be a direct connection between early movers in the medical and recreational space – just because of certification infrastructure and the need to track and trace product.

Here is an alphabetical list of the top 20 cannabis firms aus Deutschland that you almost certainly have heard about before if you follow events and the industry in Europe. You will definitely be hearing more about them in the near future. They range from cultivation, distribution, and manufacturing companies to those that provide vital equipment for the certified industry. And all of them have weathered the dramatic transition in the market here since 2017.

Alephsana

Based in Berlin, this GDP-certified distributor was founded in 2019 by Boris Moshkovits. The company has had many successes so far, including helping to bring the first Australian cultivated cannabis into the German market. Moshkovits is a dedicated cannapreneur and aspires to help normalize the cannabis pipeline into Germany by sourcing high-quality, certified cannabis globally.

Aphria/Tilray

Aphria was one of the three firms that won authorization to grow cannabis during the German cultivation bid. They subsequently merged with Tilray, but not before also purchasing the sixth-largest mainstream medical distributor in the country (CC Pharma).

Aurora Cannabis

This Canadian public company also won one of the three cultivation slots in the German cultivation bid. The firm has a footprint across Europe at this point. It was one of the earliest public Canadian companies before establishing itself across the EU over the last five years.

Canify Clinics

This new addition to the medical cannabis clinic and telehealth space in Germany (but an established company in the Danish cannabis space) is entering the market at an interesting time – and going up against several more established competitors. With clinics opening this year in Berlin, Munich, Dusseldorf and just south of Frankfurt, the firm also just acquired a German GDP distributor.

Cannamedical

Based in Cologne, the company was one of the first independent, certified, GDP distributors in the country. Founded by David Henn, the company has consistently been at the forefront of industry trends.

Cannovum

Germany’s first publicly traded distributor, importer, and manufacturer, based in Berlin, also has the distinction of being helmed by one of the few women executives in the industry, Pia Marten. The company has also established a Portuguese subsidiary, which is a joint venture with local partners to initially distribute medical cannabis to Portuguese pharmacies.

Cansativa

Located in Frankfurt, Cansativa won the tender issued by BfArM to become the sole distributor for medical cannabis grown in Germany. The company has now successfully raised two rounds of financing, the last from American cannapreneur and rapper, Snoop Dogg.

Cantourage

The founders of the company have extensive experience in the German cannabis industry. They originally founded Pedianos (later acquired by Aurora) as Germany changed its medical law to include cannabis. Cantourage is their second cannabis company. They are also continually bringing in cannabis and cannabinoid medicines from various parts of the world.

Demecan

Demecan remains the only German-founded cannabis cultivation company. The three founders managed to acquire the license won by Canadian Wayland as the company merged with ICC: Currently they are growing cannabis for the German medical market.

Drapalin Pharmaceuticals

Founded in Munich in 2017 by four childhood friends, the wholesaler and GDP distributor is currently importing cannabis from Lesotho for distribution mainly in Bavaria. The firm also has a range of CBD extracts.

Harter GmbH

Harter does not cultivate or distribute cannabis products – but they do something almost as important. They build drying systems for certified cannabis, with an eye toward also creating a carbon-friendly footprint for the process. The firm has established a global customer base.

HERBLIZ Berlin/NGP Berlin

Berlin-based Herbliz operates in multiple sectors of the emerging cannabis industry, including CBD white and private label manufacturing. In addition to its brand Herbliz, the company also operates a THC-focused medical cannabis business.

Khiron

Khiron is an interesting hybrid. It is a Canadian public company with cultivation based in Columbia combined with a strong European presence (in Frankfurt). The company is a producer and distributor of medical-grade cannabis and commercial CBD products and are also opening specialty clinics in key markets, starting with Latin America and the UK.

LIO Pharmaceuticals GmbH

Based just outside of Düsseldorf in Solingen, Lio is currently a GDP distributor with plans to become Germany’s first GMP white label extraction factory. The company is currently building out its manufacturing facility and distributing medical-grade product.

Nimbus Health/Dr. Reddy’s

Nimbus, founded by two millennial friends in Frankfurt, established itself as a medical specialty distributor in the center of European banking and finance. The company was acquired at the beginning of 2022 by Dr. Reddy’s, a globally known Indian wellness and generic pharmaceutical company.

Sanity/Vayamed

Sanity Group, a Berlin based health and life-science company founded by Finn Age Hänsel and Fabian Friede in 2018, aims to improve people’s quality of life through the use of cannabinoids and the utilization of the endocannabinoid system. The focus is on pharmaceuticals and medical products (Sanity Medical with Vayamed, AVAAY Medical, Endosane, and others) on the one hand and cannabinoid-based consumer goods (Sanity Care with VAAY and This Place) on the other. Financially and strategically, Sanity Group is backed by investors such as Redalpine, Calyx and Casa Verde Capital (Snoop Dogg).

Storz and Bickel

This eponymous firm is well known globally for its vape products – starting with the ever-amazing “Volcano.” The firm also has the most widely used medically certified vape in the German market. Canopy Growth bought the firm in 2018.

Synbiotic

This holding company is comprised of a current portfolio of four firms it has acquired on an aggressive purchasing spree over the last several years including Hempamed, Solidmind Group GmbH, BioCBD and Cannexo GmbH. The company is establishing a broad footprint across the CBD and medical cannabis space with an eye to the opening recreational market.

WEECO

WEECO is a certified pharmaceutical distributor based in lower Saxony, with an international presence in Denmark, Switzerland, and Greece, selling cannabis-based products worldwide. The company’s mission is to “revive healing powers of Cannabis and help to establish a reliable supply structure for industry and patients.

Four20 Pharma

Four 20 Pharma is a GMP licensed German manufacturer, wholesaler and importer of medicinal cannabis. Since its establishment in 2018, the company has positioned itself as one of the biggest players in the German medicinal cannabis market, with its growth underpinned by the success of its “420 NATURAL” brand, one of the highest selling medicinal cannabis brands in Germany.

German Health Minister Given Cannabis Legalization Deadline By Budget Committee

In a unique twist in the annals of cannabis legalization lore, the new head of the German Health Ministry was given an ultimatum by the Bundestag’s budget committee to submit a passable recreational cannabis bill by the end of the summer

The German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has been given a unique incentive to submit legislation that can be passed by the Bundestag by the end of the year to legalize a recreational cannabis market. Do it or have your PR budget withheld.

For his part, Lauterbach almost simultaneously issued statements to the press that he was going to speed up the process.

This means that Germany will have, all things being equal, a fully recreational cannabis market by the end of this year – legislatively at least. How long a gap between the bill’s passage and implementation is anyone’s guess. However, given the track record of legalizing jurisdictions so far, it is not inconceivable that while decriminalization and allowances for record expungement may take place more or less immediately, the actual market start may be delayed for 12-24 months. See Colorado and Canada, if not Holland.

What Could Be in The Cards

There are many question marks now on the table about what could happen next. One thing is for certain. While the Bundestag might, for convenience purposes, leave the cultivation and distribution question alone, this will in turn lead to further legal action. Nobody is happy about the cultivation bid, much less the monopoly distribution bid issued by BfArM. Keeping that as the status quo for the first source of recreational cannabis in Germany is unlikely. Even with the giveaway of open season on dispensaries (although how these should be awarded is another variable here).

Regardless, here are some of the issues that have been bandied about. Home cultivation is apparently on the table, in a win for many activists, but whether that differs for patients and recreational users is another discussion. So is the necessity for patients to have a grow license of their own.

Expect to see a heavy presence of law enforcement and heavy penalties for driving under the influence. Also expect to see at least a discussion of online shops and delivery services, even if only allowed by individual dispensaries.

It is going to be a very interesting 8 months as Germany takes its place as the second large, western economy to now proceed down the path of full and final recreational cannabis reform.

Will Home Cultivation Be Part Of German Cannabis Legalization?

Government leaders have been quoted recently saying that home grow would be a necessary component of recreational reform

Last week, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach announced that German recreational reform should be prioritized this summer. However, that is not all that is afoot in Germany. Within the last week, there have also been statements across the political landscape of the ruling “Traffic Light” Coalition that home-grow will also be included in this discussion.

Citing reasons that ranged from inevitability to an awareness that patients who still cannot convince their health insurers to reimburse them will almost have to be able to grow their own, voices from the SDP, the FDP and the Greens all discussed their reasons for allowing Germans to not only buy their weed but grow it too.

Now Come the Details

Given the reliability with which German politics tick (and of course, the impossibility of predicting anything in this industry) it is, however, highly unlikely that both a Health Minister and other members of the ruling coalition would make such statements with nothing to back them up.

However, what details are actually included in this first tranche of legalization legislation is still very unsure. There is also a lot of ground to cover.

Here are the biggest outstanding issues:

  1. It is widely rumored that the government will allow specially licensed dispensary shops to sell recreational cannabis. In Germany, you can find wine, beer, and spirits in almost every grocery store. That is unlikely to happen with cannabis for the foreseeable future. However, do not expect to see a suggestion that cannabis will be sold in government-run stores – as Canada initially tried to implement (and then pulled back after widespread opposition). How such licenses will be made available is a big question. Will there be an open season or some kind of lottery system run by the states or municipalities?
  2. How these new stores will be stocked is another question. Will there be additional cultivation licenses that can be applied for or will the existing medical license holders be given a monopoly on growing all high THC cannabis in the country? 
  3. Home grow. If this is allowed, will it be permitted by the number of plants, licenses, or both?
  4. Edibles and extracts. This is going to be hard-fought territory and there is almost no precedent for the same either in Europe or much of North America.

For now, there is a great deal of speculation and even maneuvering on the chessboard. However, it is clear that the tide is turning in Germany. The question now is how far, and how fast?